Amazon’s Fires will keep happening; except now, you won’t hear about them.

The Amazon Forest fires in August 2019 drew a considerable amount of attention. It was impossible to go through the internet without having heard about it, or seen images of the fire. Rightly so, it is a huge sink of atmospheric carbon for the entire world. The continued existence of the Amazon Rainforest ensures the survival of Humans with our present technology. So, what leads me to the title?

Brazil (both the government and the people) will, in general, undertake activities that economically benefit themselves. It will optimise for Brazil. Brazil has an unrecognised export to the world. As a result, it is not compensated for the export and hence does not see economic benefit to the ecological services it provides to the world. The export being Carbon Sequestering, Oxygen Generation, and rain generation through the Amazon Rainforest.

On the other hand, agriculture, especially cash crops grown in Brazil, such as Sugarcane and Soybean, directly benefit the economy. As a result, Brazil’s people and government are incentivised to either participate or, turn a blind eye to the destruction of the rainforest in their boundaries. The government is only truly optimised for the population within their borders, i.e., to whom they are accountable. The Brazilian government has to show economic development, economic development the rainforest cannot drive.

It is important to note that the fires in Brazil’s rainforests are human-made and not natural. Suppose they were natural, such as the ones in California or large parts of Africa, it would be harder to pin the issue on human economic activity.

Since Brazil does not see any immediate economic benefit from the Amazon, they are incentivised to find better economic utility of the land. A result of which is more of the Amazon turning into industrial and agricultural land for economic productivity. It must be noted; if Brazil sees economic benefit from the Amazon and the services it provides to the world, forest fires will cease. The natural tendency for further economic growth by burning down the forest will still exist, but at least there would be a direct consequence to the economy for burning the Amazon.

It’s reasonably clear that the Amazon will continue burning till the time that Brazil is not paid. It is the tragedy of commons on a global scale.

Now, why won’t you hear about it again? This goes back to the way modern media is designed. The story is not novel enough to garner attention for the precious ad dollars. One rarely hears a story on the same topic after the completion of the attention cycle. Think about it; how often does one hear or read follow up on a news story. If the headline does not draw clicks, it will not be published.

Proof lies in the search trends of the forest fire.

In summary, the Amazon Rainforest is a victim of the tragedy of global commons and attention apathy. A solution to this would be the creation of an economic model where Brazil is paid for environmental exports that it provides to the world.

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I have a lingering feeling that this is not a true case of Tragedy of the Commons. Brazil has full sovereignty over the land it holds. The consequences of the fires are felt globally, but the benefits of the fires only accrue to the owner of the land, i.e., it is not a public good at a global level, it is privately owned by Brazil.